But let us return whence we started. I say
that the duke, finding himself now sufficiently
powerful and partly secured from immediate
dangers by having armed himself in his own
way, and having in a great measure crushed
those forces in his vicinity that could injure
him if he wished to proceed with his conquest,
had next to consider France, for he knew
that the king, who too late was aware of
his mistake, would not support him. And from
this time he began to seek new alliances
and to temporize with France in the expedition
which she was making towards the kingdom
of Naples against the Spaniards who were
besieging Gaeta. It was his intention to
secure himself against them, and this he
would have quickly accomplished had Alexander
lived.
Such was his line of action as to present
affairs. But as to the future he had to fear,
in the first place, that a new successor
to the Church might not be friendly to him
and might seek to take from him that which
Alexander had given him, so he decided to
act in four ways. Firstly, by exterminating
the families of those lords whom he had despoiled,
so as to take away that pretext from the
Pope. Secondly, by winning to himself all
the gentlemen of Rome, so as to be able to
curb the Pope with their aid, as has been
observed. Thirdly, by converting the college
more to himself. Fourthly, by acquiring so
much power before the Pope should die that
he could by his own measures resist the first
shock. Of these four things, at the death
of Alexander, he had accomplished three.
For he had killed as many of the dispossessed
lords as he could lay hands on, and few had
escaped; he had won over the Roman gentlemen,
and he had the most numerous party in the
college. And as to any fresh acquisition,
he intended to become master of Tuscany,
for he already possessed Perugia and Piombino,
and Pisa was under his protection. And as
he had no longer to study France (for the
French were already driven out of the kingdom
of Naples by the Spaniards, and in this way
both were compelled to buy his goodwill),
he pounced down upon Pisa. After this, Lucca
and Siena yielded at once, partly through
hatred and partly through fear of the Florentines;
and the Florentines would have had no remedy
had he continued to prosper, as he was prospering
the year that Alexander died, for he had
acquired so much power and reputation that
he would have stood by himself, and no longer
have depended on the luck and the forces
of others, but solely on his own power and
ability.
But Alexander died five years after he had
first drawn the sword. He left the duke with
the state of Romagna alone consolidated,
with the rest in the air, between two most
powerful hostile armies, and sick unto death.
Yet there were in the duke such boldness
and ability, and he knew so well how men
are to be won or lost, and so firm were the
foundations which in so short a time he had
laid, that if he had not had those armies
on his back, or if he had been in good health,
he would have overcome all difficulties.
And it is seen that his foundations were
good, for the Romagna awaited him for more
than a month. In Rome, although but half
alive, he remained secure; and whilst the
Baglioni, the Vitelli, and the Orsini might
come to Rome, they could not effect anything
against him. If he could not have made Pope
him whom he wished, at least the one whom
he did not wish would not have been elected.
But if he had been in sound health at the
death of Alexander, everything would have
been easy to him. On the day that Julius
II was elected, he told me that he had thought
of everything that might occur at the death
of his father, and had provided a remedy
for all, except that he had never anticipated
that, when the death did happen, he himself
would be on the point to die.
When all the actions of the duke are recalled,
I do not know how to blame him, but rather
it appears to me, as I have said, that I
ought to offer him for imitation to all those
who, by the fortune or the arms of others,
are raised to government. Because he, having
a lofty spirit and far-reaching aims, could
not have regulated his conduct otherwise,
and only the shortness of the life of Alexander
and his own sickness frustrated his designs.
Therefore, he who considers it necessary
to secure himself in his new principality,
to win friends, to overcome either by force
or fraud, to make himself beloved and feared
by the people, to be followed and revered
by the soldiers, to exterminate those who
have power or reason to hurt him, to change
the old order of things for new, to be severe
and gracious, magnanimous and liberal, to
destroy a disloyal soldiery and to create
new, to maintain friendship with kings and
princes in such a way that they must help
him with zeal and offend with caution, cannot
find a more lively example than the actions
of this man.
Only can he be blamed for the election of
Julius II, in whom he made a bad choice,
because, as is said, not being able to elect
a Pope to his own mind, he could have hindered
any other from being elected Pope; and he
ought never to have consented to the election
of any cardinal whom he had injured or who
had cause to fear him if they became pontiffs.
For men injure either from fear or hatred.
Those whom he had injured, amongst others,
were San Pietro ad Vincula, Colonna, San
Giorgio, and Ascanio. Any one of the others,
on becoming Pope, would have had to fear
him, Rouen and the Spaniards excepted; the
latter from their relationship and obligations,
the former from his influence, the kingdom
of France having relations with him. Therefore,
above everything, the duke ought to have
created a Spaniard Pope, and, failing him,
he ought to have consented to Rouen and not
San Pietro ad Vincula. He who believes that
new benefits will cause great personages
to forget old injuries is deceived. Therefore,
the duke erred in his choice, and it was
the cause of his ultimate ruin.
第７章 他人の軍隊か幸運かによって獲得されて新しい君主国について
さて，私たちの出発点に立ち戻ってみましょう。公は今や十分に強力となり，それなりに自分の軍備を整えることで，ある程度は目の前の危難から安全となり，彼に損害を与えるような近隣の諸勢力はあらかた粉砕したので，彼がさらに征服の歩を進めたければ，次に考慮すべきなのはフランスのことでした。というのは，フランス王は自分の過ちに気付くのがあまりに遅すぎたのですが，もう公を支援しないことは，公にはわかっていたからです。そこでこれ以降，公は新しい同盟者を捜しはじめ，ガエタを包囲したスペイン軍に対抗してフランスがナポリ王国へ遠征したさいには，フランスにたいして日和見を決めこんだのです。公の意図はフランスから我が身を守ることでした。もしアレクサンデルが生きてさえいれば，このことはたちまち達成できたことでしょう。
これが当面の事態にたいする彼の方針だったのです。しか将来にたいしては，彼は，そもそも，教会の新しい後継者が彼に友好的でなく，アレクサンデルが与えてくれたものを取り上げるのではないかと恐れざるをえませんでした。そこで次の四つのやりかたで行動しようと決断しました。第一は，これまで略奪してきた領主に一族を根絶やしにして，教皇に口実を与えないようにすることでした。第二には，もう見たように，ローマの貴紳をみんな味方にして，その助力で教皇を抑制できるにようにすることでした。第三は，聖職者団体をもっと自分寄りに変えることでした。第四には，現教皇が死去するまえに，自分の手立てで最初の衝撃に耐えられるようにするため，もっと権力を手に入れることでした。この四つの事柄のうち，アレクサンデルの死去の時点では，三つが完了していました。というには，地位を奪われた領主のうち，襲うことのできた大多数は殺し，難を逃がれたのはわずかだったし，ローマの貴紳は味方につけ，聖職者団体では最大派閥を擁していたのです。そして新しい領土獲得については，トスカーナの主になるつもりでした。というのはもう既にペルジアトピオンビオを得ていたし，ピサは彼の保護下にあったからです。そしてもうフランスのことを気にかける必要がなくなった(なぜなら，フランスはスペイン軍によってナポリ王国から駆逐され，こうしてフランスとスペインの双方とも彼の好意を買わざるをえなかったから)ので，ピサを急襲したのです。この後，一部は憎しみから，また一部はフィレンツェ人にたいする恐れから，ルッカとシエナはすぐに屈っしました。またフィレンツェ人に回復策がなかったら，彼は成功を続けていたでしょう。アレクサンデルの死までは成功してきたように。というのは，彼は大きな権力と名声を得て，自立しており，もはや運や他人の勢力に依らずに，自分の権力と才能だけでやっていけたでしょうに。
しかし，彼が初めて剣を抜いてから五年のうちにアレクサンデルは死去したのです。彼が公に残したのは，ロマーニャの国家が唯一確固としたもので，残りは強大な敵軍の間に無夢散し，それと死に至る病なのでした。けれど，公には途方もない大胆さと才能があり，どうすれば人を味方につけ敵にまわすか，よくわかっていたし，また極めて短期のうちに築いた基盤はとても強固なので，こうした敵軍に苦しめられたりせず，健康であったら，公はあらゆる困難に打ち勝ったことでしょう。わかるように，その基盤はしっかりしていました。というのは，ロマーニャは一月以上も彼を待ち続けたのです。ローマで，彼は半死半生でしたが，身の安全は確保されていました。また，バリオーニ家，ヴィッテリ家，オリシーニ家の者たちがローマに来たとはいえ，彼にたいしてなにも成しえなかったのです。彼が望む者を教皇にすることはできなかったにしろ，少くとも望まない者が選出されないようにはできたはずです。アレクサンデル死去[12]の際に健康な状態にあったなら，すべては彼に都合よくことが運んだことでしょう。ユリウス二世[13]が選出された日に，彼が私に語ったのは，彼の父親が死んだら起こることはすべて考え，あらゆることに回復策を用意してあったが，実際に父親が死んだときに，まさか自分自身が死にかけるとは，思いもしなかったということでした。
公がとった行動をすべて思い返してみると，私には彼を非難すべきところは見当らないどころか，これまで述べたように，運と他人の武力で統治者に成り上がった人はみな彼を見習うよう勧めたいほどです。なぜなら，彼は高邁な精神と広大な目的を抱き，これ以上はやれないほど自分の行為を統御したのですが，ただアレクサンデルの短命と自分の病によって，その企図を阻まれたのですから。それだから，自分の新しい君主国で自分自身の身の安全を確保し，味方を増やし，武力か策略で制圧し，自分を人々から敬愛されるとともに畏怖されるようにし，兵士に従われかつ敬われ，彼を傷つけるだけの力と理由のある者たちを根絶し，古い制度を新しい制度に変え，苛烈にして慈悲深く，寛大でかつ気前よくし，不忠の軍隊を解体して新しい軍隊を創設し，王侯君主とは友好を保って，彼らが熱心に彼を援助し，困らせるにも慎重を期さざるをえないようにすることが，必要だと考える人には，この人の行動ほど生きいきとした実例は見つからないでしょう。
唯一彼がとがめられるのは，ユリウス二世の選出についてだけです。彼は過った選択をしたのです。なぜなら，言ってきたように，彼の意に沿う教皇を選出できなくても，それ以外の者が教皇に選出されるのを邪魔することはできたはずですから。それで，彼が傷つけたことのある枢機卿や教皇になったら彼を恐れる理由のある枢機卿が選出されることに，同意すべきではなかったのです。というのも，人が危害を与えるのは，恐怖か憎悪のどちらかによるからなのです。とりわけても，彼が傷つけた者というのは，サン・ピエトロ・アド・ヴィンクラ，コロンナ，サン・ジョルジョ，アスカニーオでした[14]。ルーアンとスペイン人以外の他の誰が教皇になっても，彼を恐れたでしょう。スペイン人はその親族関係と恩義から，ルーアンはフランス王国と彼との関係で，彼の影響下にあることから，彼を恐れることはなかったのです。だから，公は何よりもまず，スペイン人の教皇を立てるべきであり，それに失敗したなら，サン・ピエトロ・アド・ヴィンクラではなく，ルーアンを承諾すべきだったのです。お歴々に新しい恩恵を施せば，古傷を忘れてもらえると信じる者は，欺かれます。こうして，公はその選択を誤り，それが最終的な破滅の原因となったのです。
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